3:57PM BST 15 Sep 2011
125 CommentsPalestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat has said that next week’s statehood bid aims to “keep hope alive” for Palestinians eager to win their independence. Yet on a practical level, the bid is not only unlikely to further the construction of an independent state, it may have the unintended and very dangerous consequence of emboldening Hamas.
Recent polls suggest that the majority of Palestinians remain united in their commitment to independence, but are increasingly ambivalent about the value of the statehood gambit, and more focused on measures which will tangibly improve their daily life. As Dr Hussein Ibish, a senior fellow at the American Taskforce on Palestine, told us: “Palestinians aren’t stupid - they know this UN bid is not going to create a Palestinian state. Now that they’ve had time to see what the costs will be, it’s clear that many Palestinians are re-evaluating the effectiveness of the bid.”
The potential loss in American aid to the PA as a result of the bid could have serious fallout for the fledgling economy of the West Bank, and may undermine both state-building efforts and public confidence in the PA. The US, which currently contributes approximately $500 million in much-needed annual aid to the PA, objects to the statehood bid on the grounds that it subverts the negotiation process with Israel, and has threatened to withdraw or severely curtail these funds if the PA goes to the UN this month. Palestinians in the West Bank got a taste of what may be to come this summer, when a short-fall in aid from Arab countries prevented the PA from paying civil servants their full salaries.
The reversal of the West Bank’s much-vaunted economic growth could alienate and undermine upwardly mobile Palestinians, whose decision to settle in an independent Palestine cannot be taken for granted. A recent poll of Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem by Dr David Pollock found a surprisingly ambivalent attitude towards living in an independent Palestine, which appears primarily tied to their belief that Israel would offer a higher standard of living. For PA leaders eager to build a prosperous and productive Palestinian society, such potential middle-class flight should be particularly worrying.
It raises the question: in the absence of clear public support and with the near-certainty of financial penalty, why has Fatah decided to forge ahead on the UN route? PA President Mahmoud Abbas argues that any form of UN recognition, however symbolic, will increase their leverage over Israel. PA proponents of the UN path also appear to have privately calculated that, in the absence of negotiations, Fatah must make some kind of grand gesture to maintain their credibility and relevance, both domestically and internationally.
Ironically, the statehood bid may in fact have the opposite effect by empowering Hamas - Fatah’s nominal partner but perennial rival. At present, Fatah and Hamas represent the most powerful forces in Palestinian politics, but despite their much vaunted “reconciliation” in May 2011, the two parties remain irreconcilably divided over their visions of a future Palestinian state: for example, while Fatah has made significant progress in countering Islamist extremism in the West Bank, Hamas has imposed Saudi-style sharia law in Gaza.
The fact remains that Palestinian independence is dependent upon a negotiated settlement with Israel, and the UN campaign has made it even less likely that Israel will return to negotiations any time soon. When Palestinians realise that a changed UN status has delayed or even hindered progress towards independence, Fatah could be - potentially fatally - discredited, and Hamas emboldened.
Indeed, Hamas may seek to channel popular anger into acts of violence which could culminate in another civil war between Fatah and Hamas, or even a third intifada. With their Syrian patrons possibly on the verge of collapse, Hamas will have a particularly strong incentive to re-assert themselves as the party of resistance. To make matters worse, this could draw other regional powers such as Egypt into the mix, as Palestinian militants did last month by attacking Israel from the Egyptian border. Far from advancing independence, the UN route appears poised to prove at best self-defeating, and at worst self-destructive.
• Houriya Ahmed and Julia Pettengill are Research Fellows at the Henry Jackson Society, and authors of the report Regional Actors and the Fatah-Hamas Unity Deal: Shifting Dynamics in the Middle East?, published in July 2011.
